Sun. May 22nd, 2022

Commentary by Samuel Strait – May 7, 2022

Recently two separate incidents have occurred, where mass transit buses
which were both relatively new and electric powered, caught fire, and
exploded.  In an effort to be “green” 149 electric buses have been
pulled out of service in Paris, France due to these disturbing
incidents.  Fortunately no one was killed in either accident.  This does
however;  illustrate one of the many problems yet to be resolved when it
comes to wholesale conversion from carbon powered vehicles to electricity.

Not only is production of electricity still heavily reliant fossil
fuels, but battery technology has a ways to go before it becomes
reliable, safe, and durable.  Despite over decades of technological
improvements, batteries, the power to charge them, and the materials to
construct them remain issues that prevent wide spread transition to an
all EV society.  In California, generally the trend setter for many
“green” technologies, will likely find this to be the case over the next
decade when all the “wishing” for a carbonless future comes to naught.

While the simple basis for EV’s as an alternate form of transportation
may seem heady to the enviro crowd, it cannot be a realistic alternative
to fossil based vehicles and other products for the foreseeable future. 
The cost to buyers of such vehicles remain a formidable challenge for
most of the human population. Material to construct the number of
vehicles, in particular the batteries, in sufficient numbers produces
problems of their own. The ability to dispose of the heart of such
systems, the batteries, will become yet another problem in the growing list.

For now, one would hope that a certain level of patience were to be
inserted in the psychosis of those who wish to run before they have
learned how to walk.  I suspect that Parisians may just be a little
leery of riding Paris’ buses for the time being, as the destruction of
two electric buses from their batteries put a rather sharp point on the
safety of such vehicles going forward. Fortunately, I do not have
children that will be riding on the local electric school buses that
have now entered the school district’s bus fleet.  While this problem
may be explained away by “manufacturing” defects, EV’s have been known
to exhibit similar spectacular ends when involved in vehicle crashes.

I do not doubt that human genius given the opportunity will develop some
form of alternative to much of the carbon base of modern society, we are
just not there yet.  Stoking the flames of Climate Change hysteria is
unlikely to make the issues of “human caused” warming, if it is in fact
a serious issue, “go away”.   As if by waving a magic wand, by resorting
to a yet to be developed fully alternative technology is naive at best,
dangerous as the Parisians have found.

3 thoughts on “By All Means, EV’s Are The Future, Once All The Kinks Are Worked Out”
  1. On Sunday, April 3rd 2022 California hit a new record for electricity generation…97% renewable. That will continue to increase. The electric grid is fully capable of sustaining an increasingly electric fleet.

    California is a breath away from an electric grid run entirely on renewable energy. Pretty cool, eh?
    Electric car sales represent a whopping 60% of the new car market in the U.S. By 2030 over 60% of all cars on the road will be electric. As far as Parisians go, by percentage they have twice the electric vehicles on the road as the U.S. Electric cars are here, mainstream and not an alternative. They are the first choice of new car buyers.

    Sources:
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-14/california-ran-on-nearly-100-clean-energy-this-month
    https://www.iea.org/reports/electric-vehicles

    1. Did you even read either of the articles that you posted? The 97% figure you are using is but for a moment in time. It in no way represents reality. Renewable are no where close to supplying the electrical needs of the State, not even close. I believe the actual figure is that renewables represent less than 10% of electricity generated in the entire state. Even then, the decommissioning of propane plants to meet climate goals have resulted in a situation of 1800 mega watts deficit production in the state, could be as much as 5,000 mega watt deficit in this year alone. Likely to continue to be in deficit state for years to come without another EV burdening an already less than adequate system.
      EV ‘s are about 8% of the total number of vehicles on the road currently in this country. No way that EV’s will reach the 60% figure that you have generated out of thin air. EV’s represent less than 1% of world wide sales and less than 5% of sales in California. Current sales of electric vehicles here in the entire United States is about 4.7% of the total sales of all vehicles, no where near 60%.
      As to Paris, their total share of EV’s is less than 3% of all vehicles in Paris and just over 1% of vehicles in the entire country of France. No where near your claim of twice as many EV’s on the road as here in the US.
      You may think that your fantasy world of EV’s is cool, but it is a fantasy none the less. The goals you claim are a huge stretch even in California where EV’s represent just short of 10% of vehicles on the road which by the way, far out strips anything the French are doing. They, the French, also have the advantage of large scale electrical generation from nuclear power plants, something that California has shunned and it still isn’t enough.
      In eight sentences and two sources you have developed a complete world of total nonsense. Come back when you can talk about a subject you clearly know nothing about. EV’S may be in our future, but that future is not in 2030 or any where close to that.

  2. One thing that tends to be left out of the equation of electric vehicles is just how to get the electricity to power them. If you look at the numbers of just personal passenger vehicles in California and you replaced even one third of those with electric vehicles, we do not have the electricity to power them. We will need more than wind power and solar power combined to meet the demand. This leaves only one option, nuclear power. Are Californians ready to increase nuclear power? I doubt it.
    Yes, I too believe that we will eventually produce workable alternatives to carbon-based fuels. I also believe that in our rush to convert to electricity, we should consider other alternatives.

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